Real Estate Rundown April 2026

Photo by Getty Images via Unsplash

New Outlook on Pending Home Sales

 Pending home sales showed modest momentum in February, with a 1.8% month-over-month increase despite a slight 0.8% dip compared to last year, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Gains were strongest across the Midwest, South, and West—driven largely by improved affordability—while the Northeast continued to lag due to higher home prices and limited inventory. Notably, the Midwest led monthly growth as the most affordable region, while year-over-year gains were concentrated in the South and West. Economists point to pent-up demand from first-time buyers and a still-strong job market as indicators of future activity, though rising oil prices and potential mortgage rate increases could slow progress. At the local level, markets like Denver and several major metros across California, Florida, and Texas posted strong annual gains, signaling pockets of resilience as the housing market heads into the spring season.

Housing Market Shifts as Seller Surplus Drives Surge in Stale Listings

 The housing market is shifting further into buyer-friendly territory, with data from Redfin showing nearly 630,000 more sellers than buyers in February—the largest gap on record. As a result, over half of all listings (52%) sat on the market for 60+ days, signaling a sharp rise in “stale” inventory as elevated mortgage rates, high home prices, and economic uncertainty continue to cool demand. Sellers are still pricing aggressively, but buyers are pushing back, with nearly two-thirds of homes selling below asking price and taking longer to go under contract. This trend is especially pronounced in Sunbelt markets like Miami, which leads the nation in stale listings, along with cities across Texas and Florida where inventory has surged. While this marks a return to more balanced, pre-pandemic conditions, rising mortgage rates could continue to limit buyer activity heading into the spring season—keeping pressure on sellers to adjust pricing and expectations. 

Mortgage Rates Climb Back to Mid-6%, Impacting Buyer Sentiment

Recent shifts in mortgage rates are creating mixed signals for the housing market, as borrowing costs climb back into the mid-6% range after briefly dipping below 6%, according to insights from Zillow. While affordability remains better than it was a year ago, a portion of those gains has been erased, impacting buyer confidence, and slowing momentum. Many prospective buyers, influenced by recent fluctuations and economic uncertainty, may choose to delay purchasing decisions as they wait for more stability. The overall impact will largely depend on how long rates remain elevated—if conditions improve quickly, the market could see a rebound during peak buying season, but prolonged volatility may push activity into the next cycle, like patterns seen in 2025.

Fed Signals Pause as Rising Energy Costs Push Mortgage Rates Up

Rising geopolitical tensions and an oil price surge are adding new uncertainty to the housing and financial markets, as policymakers signal a more cautious approach to interest rates. Recent commentary from Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, suggests the Fed is likely to hold rates steady as it evaluates the inflationary impact of the ongoing energy shock tied to conflict in the Middle East. The spike in oil and gas prices has already pushed mortgage rates higher—climbing back above 6%—and dampened expectations for rate cuts in 2026. With inflation risks still elevated after years of economic disruption, policymakers are emphasizing a “wait and see” stance, while economists warn that prolonged volatility could delay market recovery and keep borrowing costs elevated. As a result, both homebuyers and sellers may face continued uncertainty, with housing activity closely tied to how long energy prices and inflation pressures persist.

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